Today all campaigning for the Mexican presidency ended according to law. Even the candidate's web sites are carrying nothing more than a statement they cannot campaign between now and the election. For the first time, it is uncertain who will win, as the top two contenders are in a statistical dead heat. This Sunday, July 2, Mexicans will gather at polling places to determine if the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) will lose the presidency for the first time in 71 years. One thing is normal, though. There are cries of corruption from the opposition
In the past week, congressmen and candidates of the PRI have accused Vicente Fox Quesada, the leading contender from the National Action Party (PAN), of accepting illegal contributions from foreign sources. With an Anglo name and a past as CEO of Coca-Cola, Fox depends on patriotic and common man image to overcome the image of a corporate outsider. At the very start of his campaign, he created a stir by stringing a banner of la Vírgen de Guadalupe, perhaps the strongest symbol of the region, across the stage. This was quickly denounced from opposition and his followers (and the laws that prevent religious icons in campaigns). For now, Fox has filed a lawsuit with the PRI appointed Attorney General, charging defamation.
Even with the standard accusations of buying votes in place, everyone is sure things are going to change in Mexico. If the PRI retains its power, the party will have to change or face eventual defeat. If Fox wins, and PAN overtakes the Senate and lower congress, then the PRI power infrastructure that has controlled every aspect of the country for the past seven decades will crumble. The most difficult result would be a victory for Fox, and PRI success in the Senate (the congress has 200 seats divided according to each party's percentage of votes). This would give Vicente Fox six years of frustration and bickering on par with what Clinton has experienced in the United States.
One interesting change in Mexican politics is the effort to sway the opinion of Mexicans living in the United States. Legislation to allow Mexicans living outside the country to vote didn't make it through this year, but it could be revived if the controlling party sees the benefit. While Mexican expatriates can't vote, they hold close ties back home and might be able to influence the votes of friends and family. Mexicans living in the U.S. send home $7 billion dollars a year. This is the third largest source of income for the country.
Either party will have to deal with the sexenio. Every six years for the past couple of decades, the economy has taken a major fall. Those who found themselves with significant savings or on the cusp of becoming middle class, were kicked back into poverty by inflation and a devalued peso. Anyone who sits in office this year will get the blame if the economy crashes again. The PRI can try to wrestle credit away from Fox's party six years from now if the economy stays healthy.
We'll have to wait to see what the actual changes will be. During the last election, the PRI started building roads in one town. When the election was won, the construction stopped. Farmers are waiting to see if PRI warnings that their subsidized income will disappear if Fox wins will come true. The Mayans in Chiapas are waiting to see if Fox will keep promises to increase local technology and enforce agreements that thus far have done nothing other than decorate the president's desk. Those on the Arizona border will wait to see if a president on either side of the border will take an interest in their escalating tensions. Whatever the result, Mexico is entering a new era.
| Don't Miss These Resources |